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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.